The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh has sent shockwaves through the region, raising concerns about the stability and future of business operations for companies with significant stakes in the country. The ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the subsequent violent protests have left a trail of uncertainty, particularly for Indian companies that have a deep-rooted presence in Bangladesh. This article delves into the multifaceted impact of the crisis on Indian firms, examining both the immediate challenges and potential long-term consequences.

The Immediate Impact on Indian Companies

Indian companies with substantial operations in Bangladesh are already feeling the strain of the ongoing crisis. Among the hardest hits are Marico, Pearl Global Industries, and Emami.

• Marico: Known for its flagship brand, Saffola, Marico derives 11-12% of its revenue from Bangladesh. The political turmoil threatens to disrupt sales, causing concern for investors and stakeholders alike.  
• Pearl Global Industries: This apparel manufacturer, which garners approximately 25% of its revenue from Bangladesh, has been forced to halt operations at its facilities due to the curfew imposed during the unrest. The suspension of activities poses a significant threat to the company’s financial health.
• Emami: With a strong market presence in Bangladesh, Emami faces potential disruptions in its operations. The uncertainty surrounding the situation could lead to supply chain bottlenecks and operational inefficiencies.

Other Indian conglomerates, including Bayer Corp, GCPL, Britannia, Vikas Lifecare, Dabur, Asian Paints, Pidilite, Jubilant Foodworks, and Bajaj Auto, are also grappling with the fallout from the unrest. The situation is particularly alarming for companies like Trent, PDS, and VIP Industries, which rely heavily on Bangladesh as a critical part of their supply chain.

Sectoral Analysis: Two-Wheelers, Textiles, and Power

The crisis in Bangladesh is expected to have a varied impact across different sectors, with some industries more vulnerable than others.

• Two-Wheeler Exporters: Indian two-wheeler manufacturers, such as Bajaj and Hero MotoCorp, are bracing for a downturn in exports to Bangladesh, which constitutes6% of the total share. The uncertainty could lead to a decline in sales, affecting the overall profitability of these companies.

• Textile and Garment Industry: The textile sector presents a complex picture. On one hand, Bangladesh is a significant market for Indian yarn exports, accounting for 25-30% of total exports. While the current disruption is minor, according to Neeraj Jain, Joint Managing Director of Vardhman Textiles, the situation could escalate if the crisis persists. Conversely, the turmoil offers Indian textile and garment manufacturers an opportunity to capture greater market share. Companies like Gokaldas Exports, KPR Mill, Arvind Ltd, SP Apparels, Century Enka, Kitex Garments, and Nahar Spinning have seen their shares surge, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics.

• Adani Power and the Energy Sector: The crisis has also cast a shadow over the power supply agreement between Adani Power Limited and Bangladesh. The 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA), signed in 2017, is a cornerstone of Bangladesh’s energy strategy, with Adani Power committed to supplying 1,496 MW of power from its Godda Power Plant. However, the political upheaval may lead to renegotiations, particularly concerning coal pricing. While the continuation of the agreement is crucial for Bangladesh’s power needs, any drastic changes could adversely affect investor sentiment and the long-term stability of the energy sector.

Sectors Shielded from Bangladesh's Political Crisis

Certain sectors remain largely insulated from the impact of the Bangladesh crisis. The banking industry and other large-cap companies not previously mentioned are expected to be unaffected by these developments. The crisis is anticipated to have the most significant repercussions on the FMCG and textile sectors, with a more moderate impact on the two-wheeler segment. For other industries, the effect is minimal, as less than 3% of their total revenue is derived from Bangladesh. PSU sectors like Garden Reach Ship Builders, RITES have their presence in Bangladesh as they are executing orders received from Bangladesh Government.

Looking Ahead: Strategic Implications and Future Prospects

The future impact of the Bangladesh crisis on Indian companies will largely depend on the duration and resolution of the unrest. A prolonged period of instability could exacerbate operational disruptions, supply chain challenges, and financial losses. Conversely, a swift resolution might restore confidence and allow for a rebound in business activities.

For Indian companies, the situation underscores the importance of diversifying risk and adopting a flexible approach to international operations. While the immediate outlook remains uncertain, the crisis also presents opportunities for companies to reassess their strategies and explore new avenues for growth.

Conclusion

As the political situation in Bangladesh continues to evolve, Indian companies must remain vigilant and responsive to the changing landscape. The crisis serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of regional economies and the need for proactive risk management in an increasingly volatile global market. While the road ahead may be fraught with challenges, it also offers a unique opportunity for Indian enterprises to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in the face of adversity.

-Debraj Guhathakurata